Never mind the technology, feel the speed. At a simple practical level, the principal advantage of 4G telecommunications over the previous generations is that the bandwidth and therefore the transmission speeds are much higher. That is why business users of mobile communications are looking forward to its arrival later this year from the four licensees which have already paid over €450 million in the ComReg spectrum auction. Because of some restrictions in appropriate spectrum availability, with current licensees contracted into 2015, the full availability of spectrum and the longer term licences until 2030 will happen in 2015.
But the first four services, and any ‘virtual’ offerings on those platforms, will certainly establish the market and should between them catch all of the pent-up demand that is undoubtedly there. Not to neglect the consumer market, despite what will inevitably be steep pricing by current 3G standards, there is certainly a sizeable proportion of business users which will welcome the additional power of 4G.
Head room
While bandwidth and speed are obviously the sexy bits, with theoretical maximum data speeds of the order of 70-80Mbps, in fact the 3 network is claiming it can support maximum data speed of the order of 180Mbps. That is clearly in a class to challenge UPC cable in Dublin, but day-dreamers are advised to curb their enthusiasm. Our interviewees (and practical experience in the USA and the three month old UK service from EE) suggest that the practical average data speeds will be in the order of 12-14/15Mbps. We are talking average, in fairness, and the carriers are naturally reluctant to make more ambitious claims ahead of going live. On the other hand, users in major cities and within close range of the 4G base stations may well see data speeds of 20-40Mbps or more, which, they will of course, become accustomed to and then start to complain when they drop to the average.
But 4G is not just about bandwidth and data speed. Some further elements are likely to prove important, especially to business. The talk is of 4G mobile, because of course that is where the technology has been developed and is being applied. But from a more objective point of view, 4G can be seen as inaugurating a communications era in which the ‘mobility’ element is actually irrelevant. We are really talking about ubiquitous wireless broadband, as readily used as a copper line substitute in fixed locations as in mobile devices on the move. It also offers enormous possibilities for machine-to-machine telecommunications.
Rural boon
Another aspect that will be welcomed in smaller towns and rural areas is that lower frequency signals in the 800 and 900mhz spectrum travel further from the base stations. So the potential range and geographical coverage of a data signal will be significantly increased for services based on those frequencies. Similarly, the data signal will penetrate further into large buildings which sometimes curtail 3G signal reliability.
Another and equally promising element is that in general 4G speaks fluent IP, the universal lingua franca of the Internet. So almost anything that can currently be done on a LAN or WAN can be done wirelessly over 4G. Voice telephony is, oddly enough, something of an exception for the moment. The universal standards for devices and roaming between networks that underpin the GSM world were only joined by the 4G equivalent Voice over LTE (VoLTE) in 2010. The signal quality is potentially excellent and believed to be more energy-efficient in terms of device battery life. But it is all still evolving.
Spectrum cover
Vodafone is the largest investor in spectrum at €161 million upfront in all three frequency bands, 800, 900 and 1800. "That is very deliberate. We are aiming to have the biggest spectrum range to match our network of 2,500 base stations, the largest in Ireland," says Fergal Kelly, Vodafone Ireland CTO. "We are aiming to offer the best 4G services for business and consumers and the best coverage. The promise is that we will deliver a data signal wherever you can currently get voice."
That is in part because LTE technology will increase both the coverage range and the capacity of each base station. "The theoretical speed max is about 100Mbps but obviously that would be in ideal conditions. We see average speeds being in the range 14 to 25Mbps," Kelly says. "But there is more to 4G than simple data speed. For example there will be lower latency, which opens up a much greater portfolio of services that need that quality of signal, like games or certain business applications."
Actual roll-out by Vodafone and the licensees generally will follow the natural progression from larger cities outwards, just like broadband, according to Kelly. "That is just the natural market pattern, plus the sometimes overlooked fact that most users will have to invest in new handsets. A few smart phones in the current market like the iPhone 5 and Samsung Galaxy are ready for 4G but for the most part new handset models will be part of the equation. So it is really inevitable that roll-out of services will begin in concentrated population centres."
Country first
Yet Kelly points to the example of Vodafone Germany, where the regulator mandated rural coverage first for its initial 4G licensing. "That actually worked very well in technical terms and indeed we will be drawing on their experience in commissioning our own network." Vodafone is also a 45% partner in Verizon USA, which launched one of the world’s first 4G LTE networks in 2011. Now serving nearly 500 cities, this relationship is also a potential source of technical experience for Vodafone.
Kelly pointed out that part of the challenge for established operators is that 4G has to live harmoniously with 3G and even ‘2G’ services. One of the elements here is that 4G voice traffic should seamlessly drop down to 3G (or even remain a 3G service) if a suitable 4G signal is not available. "For data, 4G will certainly act as a copper or ADSL substitute for business and consumers who cannot get internet access satisfactorily," Kelly says. "We have already seen that 3G is a very good substitute for a traditional landline for both voice and data, depending on the data performance needs."
eircom group
Meteor and e-Mobile are the two mobile brands of eircom group, the entity formerly and sometimes affectionately known as ‘the incumbent’. Wearing its Meteor hat it has invested €145 million across the available spectrum, which in turn means that it remains the largest and only operator across all telecommunications channels from national fibre and copper through Wi-Fi to the three generations of mobile technology still in operation. In fact Elaine Robinson, business director for LTE in the eircom group, points out that its spectrum investments is not just for 4G but will also enable it to improve the 3G experience for its customers. "We will see 3G data speeds up to 21Mbps as well as deeper coverage in large buildings. General mobile data speeds for all subscribers will rise to a minimum level of about 5 to 7Mbps, directly comparable to ADSL for most landline subscribers."
"We have already done loads of speed tests and consulted other carriers internationally," she added. "We are confident that our 4G service will consistently be at 10Mbps at a minimum and we have realistic scenario test results giving 73Mbps. In the USA, ATT and Verizon are achieving 15 to 17Mbps average network speeds using the same technology."
Range of technologies
The real point for business in Ireland, Robinson says, is that there will be a complete range of internet access technologies from which to choose for the needs and priorities. "Fibre will almost certainly remain the most powerful channel, fixed line is inherently more reliable than any wireless signal, but 4G mobile will be ahead of most of our current needs in real life markets. We see a blurring of the lines between the channels and services, including technical failover from one to another, that is transparent from a user point of view. This is going to be a new world of real convergence across all communications technologies."
Robinson also sees huge potential for added value services with the advent of 4G. "We are certainly planning to extend the range of depth or our existing eircom assets, notably MusicHub, SportsHub and StudyHub. There also proven services that we offer in partnership, notably Microsoft Office365 for example, that we believe will be extended and joined by others." Essentially, she says, 4G will complete and enable the converged, totally connected communications experience. Equally important is that it will do so at bandwidths to enable all but the most demanding current applications.
Enhanced 3G and 4G
Our familiar O2 mobile service belongs to Spanish multinational Telefonica, which acquired the market No. 2 in 2006. Telefonica’s Head of Networks is Fergal McCann, who says that Telefonica’s tests and experience in other markets points to average 4G data speeds of the order of four or five times current 3G rates and up to about 30Mbps. "Using our extensive site infrastructure in Ireland, with fibre backhaul and re-using some GSM spectrum, O2 Ireland’s investment will enable us to offer enhanced 3G services as well as the new 4G."
That is important to many Irish SMEs, he says, which have become dependent on the mobile data capabilities of3G for important business processes. The richer data capability of 3G, as well as the even higher speed option of 4G, will in many cases prove an alternative to ADSL on site as well as in mobile use.
"You could start a business today without a copper line at all, not to mention the many applications available as cloud services. With better data performance, this will all be very like a Wi-Fi experience for users. There is also movement in the technical performance of apps and cloud services, all of which are being forced to become more efficient in using bandwidth. This will also contribute to extending the range of possibilities and choices for business processes." In that context, McCann says that rich mobile applications are already strong and evolving rapidly. "We certainly see a lot of partnering to offer customers choices of best-in-class services."
Above all else, McCann is convinced that Ireland will prove a very successful market for 4G mobile with speedy uptake. "Smart phone penetration is already very high in this market. Culturally, we talk a lot and we are very sociable. Unsurprisingly, this has already translated to digital sociability. Combined with the business flexibility and productivity that 4G communications will enhance, I think it is safe to predict strong market take-up from the moment 4G service is introduced."
Q3 for 4G
Three Ireland CTO David Hennessy reckons his company will have its 4G services available in Q3. That is more specific than the other licensees but does appear to be the market consensus. There may be some first mover advantage for the bigger players when it happens but in practice it is more likely that business customers will choose to upgrade with their existing mobile providers unless they have specific reasons to ‘churn’.
The 3 network was initially designed and built for data and the company does not have legacy GSM handsets to support. This has already contributed to its ability to provide high speed networking to customers. At the top end, 3 has already declared that its 4G LTE service will attain data speeds of up to 180Mbps. "As well as our infrastructure sharing agreement with Vodafone we are planning to add over 1,000 sites over the next two years to double our own network," Hennessy says. "That will add density of coverage and capacity, especially combined with the longer signal reach of LTE at the lower frequencies."
He explains that LTE is a new technology for all operators, so that means investment in new core network technology across all mobile base stations. That engineering requirement is the fundamental reason why 4G cannot be launched immediately as the licences came into being this month. "We invested in the 1800mhz spectrum in part because that will mean immediate 4G access for some existing handsets, notably the iPhone 5 and Samsung Galaxy. But in general customers will also be investing in new handsets, which will be a significant consideration for many business customers."
Required bandwidth
Perhaps because 3 is prepared to talk about 180Mbps, the highest figure of any of the licensees, Hennessy points out that beyond the average 4G data speeds commonly promised (in the 10-12 to 20-25Mbps range) it must be asked what current mobile services require greater bandwidth. "People look at their speeds and ask whether they should be faster. But it is often the case that the applications or services they are using are simply not demanding greater speed from their servers. But as bandwidth hunger grows, as it inevitably will, and cloud services continue to grow, we believe the total infrastructure will need to support delivery. So fibre to the base stations, for example, is the only way to go."
What 4G really means as the next generation in technology evolution is universal connectivity, Hennessy says. "With reasonable data speed-or indeed very high speed-available on demand, anywhere and anytime, we are just going to need the appropriate devices for the tasks and the apps, applications or services for whatever we want to do. I see very few people at business meetings with laptops any more, just smart phones and tablets. But like everybody else of course I use a laptop and at home I connect AppleTV to my television set. That’s what universal broadband means-choices for what suits the task or activity, in device, in screen size, in portability and, inevitably, in budget."
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