As Anthropic prepares for a potentially historic stock-market listing, financial analysts are applying an unconventional valuation strategy. Instead of focusing on current profit, Wall Street is valuing the AI company on the basis of expected revenue for 2028. That is forecast to be between $190 and $200 billion (€164 billion and €172.9 billion). This forecast represents a huge leap from the annualised revenue of $47 billion (€40.6 billion) the company reported in May, underlining how aggressive the growth expectations are that investors are being asked to back.
To determine the value of the company, bankers are using multiples of enterprise value relative to revenue. This method is common for fast-growing software companies that are not yet profitable. It is, however, unusual to project figures two years ahead. This approach is made necessary by the extreme volatility of the AI sector and the enormous costs associated with building essential infrastructure. Current profit margins are therefore a poor indicator of long-term value.
Similar strategies have recently been applied to other fast-growing companies. Backers of Cerebras Systems pointed to expectations for 2028 ahead of its listing, and SpaceX’s valuation was based on forecasts out to 2029. For Anthropic, the bet is that revenue will eventually outstrip the towering costs of hiring staff, training models and computing power. That would lead to higher profit margins as the company matures.
In their search for benchmarks, analysts are looking at companies such as Cloudflare, Palantir and SpaceX. Each company serves a different purpose. Palantir represents a high-quality growth stock with AI exposure, Cloudflare reflects a fast-growing infrastructure model, and SpaceX shows how a company can be valued on the basis of future scale rather than current financial results. For example, Palantir is currently trading at 53 times expected annual revenue, while SpaceX and Cloudflare are trading at roughly 41.6 times their forecasts for 2026.
Traditional metrics such as EBITDA are currently less relevant for Anthropic. The company is presently investing heavily in GPUs and inference capacity to drive its expansion. The company’s trajectory, however, points to a rapid shift. After ending 2025 with a run rate of $9 billion (€7.8 billion), this had risen in May to $47 billion (€40.6 billion). Forecasts for the second quarter of 2026 point to revenue of $10.9 billion (€9.4 billion), which could mark the company’s first quarterly operating profit of $559 million (€483.2 million).
Investors’ willingness to look ahead to 2028 stems from the company’s strong growth record, with revenue increasing tenfold each year up to early 2026. The eventual valuation depends on the conviction that current spending constitutes fundamental investment that will lead to superior margins. Some experts suggest that a valuation of as much as $2 trillion is possible. Others, however, question whether AI can deliver the productivity gains needed to justify such an enormous price tag over the long term.
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