Looking forward, it is hard to believe that any future upgrade of Windows (and resulting withdrawal of support from its predecessors) will have anywhere near the same effect as the end of XP. In any case, what happened this time around is not a migration to another version of Windows because business users find the latest iteration more attractive. Instead, it is a forced migration away from an older version of Windows that many were content to continue to use purely because it has been killed off.
In other words, there was no real impetus to upgrade coming from the user community. Instead, it has been imposed on them by the people making the products.
Microsoft’s ‘one OS to rule them all’ strategy, which takes Windows beyond the PC to tablets and smart phones has interesting connotations for the PC. It could, for example, produce a halo effect that entices Windows tablet or smart phone users to consider upgrading their desktop Windows to the same version of the OS as on their mobile devices.
“Android vendors at the high end are finding it hard to differentiate and add value beyond technology and features” – Roberta Cozza
Alternatively, it could stop people buying PCs as they decide a Surface is more than adequate for their computing needs. In addition, the system requirements for Windows 8.1 and the forthcoming Windows 10 do not seem particularly onerous, so they should be matched by many existing PCs. As a consequence, there is less of a requirement to upgrade to the latest Windows OS on a PC. And with Windows 10 expected to be available for free in the first year for Windows 7 and 8 users, there is even less pressure on people to upgrade their PC.
But if the arrival of a new Windows OS does not help to drive PC sales, what will? It is hard to see. It is possible that users who become accustomed to using Windows as a touch-based OS on their devices might consider upgrading parts of their home PC system to give them a similar experience but that does not require buying a completely new PC.
Certainly, Gartner does not expect any great pick up in PC shipments any time soon. The market research company recently predicted the global PC market would decline by 2.4% this year. It also believes PC unit shipments will continue to decline between now and 2017 with an overall fall of nearly 15% compared to 2014. IDC has also revised its forecast for PC shipments in 2015 downwards to a fall of 6.9% and suggested, in line with Gartner, that the decrease will continue over the next few years.
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