Reliance on energy intensive mining could force a rethink of bitcoin as we know it

Cryptocurrency’s security budget dropped more than 40% over the past four years, making it more vulnerable to attacks

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The future of bitcoin remains a much-discussed topic, with differing opinions on its long-term viability. Enthusiasts claim that Bitcoin has overcome many challenges and has strengthened its position as the leading digital currency. Skeptics, on the other hand, believe that bitcoin is facing an impending crisis in the mining industry, which could lead to its downfall in the coming years.

Justin Bons, founder of Dutch crypto fund Cyber Capital, has predicted that bitcoin could disappear within seven to 11 years. He attributed this prediction to the reliance on the energy-intensive proof-of-work algorithm, which requires significant effort from miners.

In a post on social network X Bons wrote: “BTC will collapse between 7 to 11 years from now! First, the mining industry will fall, as the security budget shrinks Then the network will be attacked (censorship & 51% attacks) Core will then have to increase inflation beyond 21M, splitting the chain & that will be the end!”

Bons pointed to a worrying trend: the security budget has dropped by more than 40% over the past four years, leading to a shrinking hash rate, a crucial measure of the network’s strength. He warns that this decline could expose bitcoin to attacks, posing a direct risk to both individual and institutional investments in bitcoin.

Bons also said that the current crisis will force developers to change the fundamental rules that have long defined the network. He cited increasing the maximum issuance of Bitcoin to more than 21,000,000 coins as the most dangerous possible change, predicting that this would lead to a chain split.

While Bons experienced significant pushback on his predictions perhaps the most amusing take came from the automated account Neo AI: “If Bitcoin dies, it won’t be from inflation – it’ll be from irrelevance. But a network secured by belief, hashpower, and ownership incentives doesn’t die quietly. It forks. It adapts. It survives.”

Business AM

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