From the lecture hall to the tool shed
Ever since the launch of artificial intelligence (AI) doohickey ChatGPT, it has become abundantly clear that many traditional white-collar roles are facing an unprecedented threat, throwing the future of knowledge work into stark, terrifying relief.
Pity the poor senior managers: it’s not that they necessarily want to sack everyone (though, doubtless, plenty do), so much as the relentless logic of the market forcing them to demonstrate quarterly growth or, failing that, visible cost cutting. Profit is not good enough, you see.
Amidst this relentless drive for efficiency, one of the first casualties appears to be the perceived value of a university education, once a guaranteed ticket to a stable career. As AI automates more tasks, the rote knowledge and generic skills often acquired through many traditional degrees are becoming less valuable, leaving graduates with debt and dimming prospects. It’s a bitter pill to swallow if you were told throughout childhood that a university degree was a ticket to the middle class.
It’s not just a case of free-floating anxiety, either: new data from job search site Adzuna says the number of entry-level job postings in Britain has fallen by 32% since the launch of ChatGPT.
So much for the value of that degree.
Of course, when fewer than 5% of the population attended university a degree was a rather different proposition.
College is the new Leaving Cert
Today, 64% of Ireland’s population have attended a third level institution with the obvious result that degrees have become the new leaving cert. This is obviously a nonsense; higher education is in no way required to perform an entry level office job. On the other hand, do you want to be the person telling some teenager that they can’t go to university? Will you tell them that, because of broad social trends, they should put down the History of the Peloponnesian War and pick up a Haynes manual?
However, if people simply chose to do things differently that would be understandable. And if enough got up from the desk to do something else, that might be a sensible, perhaps even revolutionary, response to an evolving job market, offering both personal stability and a solution to chronic labour shortages.
It is dangerous to extrapolate from goings-on in the US. Education there is an even more voracious industry than in Ireland, where it is, for now at least, forced to pretend to be public service while gobbling down “registration fees”. Fees in the US? Get ready to be in debt for the rest of your life. Nevertheless, interesting trends are visible stateside, offering a glimpse into potential future shifts elsewhere.
Given the wonky value proposition of higher education in the US, it is no surprise to read that young people are choosing the toolbelt over the toolchain.
“Instead of relying on traditional college degrees, this generation is exploring other lucrative education options,” reports University Business.
Last year, the Wall Street Journal noted one survey found workers believed “blue-collar jobs offered better job security than white-collar ones, given the growth of AI”.
These young workers are angry, feel ripped-off, live in fear of getting their marching papers, and have apparently spotted a lucrative gap in the market: a shortage of skilled tradesmen has resulted in pay rises that have made picking up a spanner more attractive than spending all day changing the colour of spreadsheet cells.
Anecdotally, even where I am located it is virtually impossible to get small jobs done, such is the shortage of skilled tradesmen: plumbers, builders, electricians, I’ve been let down by them all.
Speaking of anecdotes, speak to anyone who has bought a ruin of an apartment or house (the lucky few) and prepare to hear horror stories about no-one ever turning up to even offer quotations on work, something that strongly supports the notion that demand for skilled trades is soaring. It is of little comfort to anyone in need of re-wiring, but the upshot is both higher pay and greater job security compared to many white-collar roles
So, what’s the right path for young people navigating this bewildering new world? Don’t ask me; I went to art school and then, for some long forgotten reason, lashed myself to the mast of journalism. It is a safe bet, though, that as AI continues its relentless march, the real opportunities may increasingly lie not just in what algorithms can’t do, but in the tangible skills that build, fix, and maintain the world around us.
But does this mean that, from nursing to networking and from plumbing to painting, the best advice is to trade the office for the workshop? Really, it’s hard to say.
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