Where are all the smart phones going?

Smart phones have developed from semi-business devices into being platforms for lifestyle, with all the illogical and irrational perceptions that that entails. This statement may sound a bit grandiose, but hear me out.

When people realised that they could actually have internet and e-mail access on a device that wasn’t a Blackberry, they liked the idea. And the iPhone sold pretty well (joke). Then Android came along and the already declining Windows Mobile had a midlife crisis.  

Android went viral and resulted in a fragmented ecosystem where operators decided on a version, bloated it with branding and apps that nobody wanted and then didn’t update it for months, if at all.

Meanwhile iOS got bigger walls for its walled garden, despite letting in many a rogue app and nuisance developer, while silencing critics and maintaining all was well as users cried out for features offered by rival systems-so pretty much like any ecosystem herder really.

Blackberry realised that social media required typing and dug out some old inventory, gave it some garish colours and sold it to the fleet-thumbed youth and had something of a renaissance.

So, as we close out in 2012, with smart phone sales on the rise, according to a Gartner report from last month, why aren’t all the mobile manufacturers raking in the cash and enjoying share price rises?

Well, one has, Apple. Taking a twelve month outlook, it is up 16% or so to the $378 mark, but it has been a bumpy ride and the effects of the passing of Steve Jobs are still being felt.

However, HTC, Nokia and Research in Motion (RIM) have all fallen significantly over the last 12 months.

Despite massively increasing Android sales, no one manufacturer has managed to capitalise on the boom. Samsung has had success with the Galaxy range, but nothing to rival the iPhone overall. HTC has a spread across both Android and Windows Phone 7, but its share price has fallen over the last 12 months too.

Now notwithstanding the macro economic conditions, the Gartner report shows a massive 42% increase in Q3 2011 of smart phone sales, so how in this feeding frenzy are companies faring so poorly?

Unfortunately it seems that many a manufacturer has had individual hurdles to negotiate and more than one has fallen.

Nokia had the Elop-driven epiphany that it could not persist with Symbian and needed a new platform, then dithered for a while and made a surprising choice. RIM had its disastrous outages that undermined confidence in its services and various patent disputes between the major players dented Samsung, HTC and Microsoft’s chances of a big win.

So where does that leave the gadget loving IT pro? Well, strangely enough, better than before.

Google has launched Android 4, or Ice Cream Sandwich as its confectionary based nomenclature dictates, in an effort to give a more uniform user experience for users and to arrest some of the fragmentation that has been seen, mainly driven by manufacturers. iOS has moved on to eventually give users actual multitasking and some of the security features that might make it less of a headache for IT admins. Windows Phone has its 7.5 update that adds a lot of useful and attractive features. That leaves RIM and Blackberry OS. Oh dear.

Despite valiant efforts to make the Blackberry brand more of a lifestyle choice beyond the Facebook obsessed, RIM has not had much luck in keeping the Blackberry at the head of smart phone adoption.

Despite a massive installed base, RIM hasn’t really won the hearts and minds of potential users with the devices that seem a little lacklustre when compared to the ‘Jesus phone’ and high end Android geek pleasers. Despite being in a similar position to Apple, RIM has never had the chique image of the Jesus phone and so has had to try to use music sponsorships and product placement to acquire some cool kudos. It is not from lack of effort either, as Blackberry OS version 7 was rolled out on a host of new devices recently, it got something of a bounce, but nothing that has grabbed the imagination of the smart phone buying public in the same way as the iPhone 4s, though again, that might be a slightly unfair comparison.

So, the top of the market still sees high end device based on Android battling the iPhone for dominance, with Windows Phone 7 Mango sporting Nokias struggling alongside a beleaguered Blackberry fleet. While users enjoy a greater level of choice than ever before, the likelihood is that there may be fewer players at the top of the market this time next year as 2012 is forecast to be tough year all round.

If your Christmas budget extends to a shiny new smart device, choose wisely, as your choice may, by next Christmas, end up in the same pile as those VHS tapes, set top internet boxes and wooly mammoths.

Read More: Blog Mobile Paul Hearns