UK cyber security agency predicts growing risks from quantum computers
Britain’s cyber security agency, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), has warned of the growing threat of quantum hackers and urged organisations to take proactive measures by 2035. These concerns stem from the possibility that advances in quantum computing could break current encryption methods used to protect sensitive data.
Quantum computers, still under development, have the ability to solve complex mathematical problems underlying commonly used encryption techniques such as asymmetric public key cryptography. This poses a significant risk to everything from online banking and cell phone communications to critical national infrastructure.
To counter this threat, the NCSC recommends that large organisations, especially those managing critical services such as energy and transportation, and companies with unique IT systems, adopt post-quantum cryptography. This includes identifying vulnerable services by 2028, prioritising key upgrades by 2031 and ultimately completing the transition to a new encryption system by 2035.
The NCSC guidelines are intended to provide organisations with a clear roadmap to protect their data from future quantum threats, ensuring the security of confidential information for years to come. Unlike traditional computers that use bits (representing 0 or 1), quantum computers use qubits that can represent different combinations of 1’s and 0’s simultaneously. This allows them to perform significantly larger and more complex calculations.
Although promising, developing stable large-scale quantum computers is challenging because of the extreme sensitivity of qubits to environmental factors such as temperature fluctuations and even cosmic rays. Nevertheless, experts recommend migrating to new encryption methods sooner rather than later to prepare for the eventual arrival of powerful quantum computers.
In addition to data security concerns, the potential impact of quantum computing on global security systems is a growing concern. Europol, the EU law enforcement agency, has identified quantum computing, alongside artificial intelligence and blockchain, as catalysts for criminal activity. They warn that these technologies could increase the speed, reach and sophistication of criminal activity.
In addition to these concerns, former Israeli cyber chief Yigal Unna sounded the alarm about a possible ‘Q-Day,’ in which advances in quantum computing could enable the hacking of sensitive systems, including nuclear weapons programs. He suggested that this threshold could already be crossed, citing reports of China cracking a military-grade computer system by the end of 2024.
In response to these growing threats, the Israel Innovation Authority urged ministries to assess their vulnerabilities and develop strategies to defend against possible attacks by quantum hackers. The urgency of quantum security underscores the need for continued innovation and collaboration to stay ahead of emerging cyber threats.
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