Twitter’s most valuable commodity, going cheap

The mistakes of Facebook's IPO must not be repeated

Facebook’s IPO on 18 May 2012 was hyped as the biggest ever. It was also the most expensive. A combination of factors from the Nasdaq’s inability to cope with the volume of transactions to violations of internal policies cost the market $10 million in fines. The state of Massachusetts fined both lead underwriter Morgan Stanley $5 million for unethical conduct over withholding information from potential investors. Similarly, Citigroup was stung for $2 million for sharing research with journalists before the closure of the 40-day post-IPO window (two analysts were later fired).

The social network’s share price then tanked from $38 to below $20 before slowly recovering to $48 at time of writing. Investors in for the long haul will feel they made the right decision but it wasn’t pretty.

The worst thing about Facebook’s IPO experience was that it failed in one of its main, if unintended, purposes: to put a dollar value on social media. News Corp and AOL both tried and failed to do so with their acquisitions of MySpace and Bebo, only to exit the market with a tiny percentage of their investment intact. Facebook played by the rules but got shafted by the market and banks. Now anyone buying shares in Facebook is trusting the company – not its product: a vast global user base.

 

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Now we get to go through the whole thing all over again on Wednesday with Twitter going public. This time around the goals are more modest: a proposed 70 million shares priced at between $17 and $20, leading to a total valuation of $13 billion (compared with Facebook’s 421 million shares at $38 each and a $96 billion valuation).

Twitter’s US population is much smaller than Facebook’s (16% versus 50% of the population) but it has different habits. According to research from Pew a greater proportion of Twitter users get their news from the network than Facebook users, are mostly in the 30-49 age bracket, evenly split by gender and more likely to have a college education. In commercial terms this is a valuable, discerning market with real buying power. Mind you, there is plenty to do on Twitter besides read the news but Pew’s work provides a valuable insight into what people actually do on Twitter and thus an insight into the comparative value of social networks.

In terms of profitablility there are only two networks worth comparing to Twitter. LinkedIn remains a steady, conservative option. Facebook is too big to fail thanks to its international user base. Low-maintenance networks appealing to small groups with low disposable income like Instagram (now owned by Facebook) and Tumblr (bought out by Yahoo) made for savvy acquisitions but are not likely to be big earners so much as drivers to their owners’ core business. You can expect SnapChat to be snapped up by someone soon.

In a sense, but the social media landscape is beginning to resemble the property market – full of areas where wealth is defined by those of the residents and their feature set. Will the market be happy to buy up some space in Twitter’s lot or will it be a case of ‘there goes the neighbourhood’ as the suits move in and the kids move out? If everyone behaves themselves it will be a hell of a welcoming party.

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'string') { return '+1 000 000 0000'; // Default US placeholder } var mockPlaceholders = [ { countryCode: 'US', placeholder: '+1 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Include the US country code +1 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'GB', placeholder: '+44 0000 000000', helpText: 'Include the GB country code +44 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'CA', placeholder: '+1 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Include the CA country code +1 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'AU', placeholder: '+61 000 000 000', helpText: 'Include the AU country code +61 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'DE', placeholder: '+49 000 0000000', helpText: 'Fügen Sie vor der Telefonnummer die DE-Ländervorwahl +49 ein', }, { countryCode: 'FR', placeholder: '+33 0 00 00 00 00', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays FR +33 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'ES', placeholder: '+34 000 000 000', helpText: 'Incluya el código de país ES +34 antes del número de teléfono', }, { countryCode: 'NL', placeholder: '+31 0 00000000', helpText: 'Voeg de NL-landcode +31 toe vóór het telefoonnummer', }, { countryCode: 'BE', placeholder: '+32 000 00 00 00', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays BE +32 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'CH', placeholder: '+41 00 000 00 00', helpText: 'Fügen Sie vor der Telefonnummer die CH-Ländervorwahl +41 ein', }, { countryCode: 'AT', placeholder: '+43 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Fügen Sie vor der Telefonnummer die AT-Ländervorwahl +43 ein', }, { countryCode: 'IE', placeholder: '+353 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Include the IE country code +353 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'IT', placeholder: '+39 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Includere il prefisso internazionale IT +39 prima del numero di telefono', }, { countryCode: 'NO', placeholder: '+47 000 00 000', helpText: 'Inkluder NO landskode +47 før telefonnummeret', }, { countryCode: 'SE', placeholder: '+46 00 000 00 00', helpText: 'Inkludera SE landskod +46 före telefonnumret', }, { countryCode: 'DK', placeholder: '+45 00 00 00 00', helpText: 'Inkluder DK landekode +45 før telefonnummeret', }, { countryCode: 'FI', placeholder: '+358 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Sisällytä FI-maakoodi +358 ennen puhelinnumeroa', }, { countryCode: 'EE', placeholder: '+372 0000 0000', helpText: 'Lisage EE riigikood +372 telefoninumbri ette', }, { countryCode: 'PL', placeholder: '+48 000 000 000', helpText: 'Podaj numer kierunkowy PL +48 przed numerem telefonu', }, { countryCode: 'SK', placeholder: '+421 000 000 000', helpText: 'Pred telefónne číslo uveďte kód krajiny SK +421', }, { countryCode: 'LV', placeholder: '+371 0000 0000', helpText: 'Iekļaujiet LV valsts kodu +371 pirms tālruņa numura', }, { countryCode: 'LT', placeholder: '+370 0000 0000', helpText: 'Įtraukite LT šalies kodą +370 prieš telefono numerį', }, { countryCode: 'GR', placeholder: '+30 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Συμπεριλάβετε τον κωδικό χώρας GR +30 πριν από τον αριθμό τηλεφώνου', }, { countryCode: 'PT', placeholder: '+351 000 000 000', helpText: 'Inclua o código de país PT +351 antes do número de telefone', }, { countryCode: 'HR', placeholder: '+385 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Uključite HR pozivni broj države +385 prije telefonskog broja', }, { countryCode: 'SI', placeholder: '+386 00 000 000', helpText: 'Vključite SI kodo države +386 pred telefonsko številko', }, { countryCode: 'IS', placeholder: '+354 000 0000', helpText: 'Láttu IS landsnúmer +354 fylgja á undan símanúmerinu', }, { countryCode: 'LU', placeholder: '+352 000 000 000', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays LU +352 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'MC', placeholder: '+377 00 00 00 00', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays MC +377 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'AD', placeholder: '+376 000 000', helpText: 'Incloeu el codi de país AD +376 abans del número de telèfon', }, { countryCode: 'JE', placeholder: '+44 0000 000000', helpText: 'Include the JE country code +44 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'IM', 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phoneInput.placeholder = placeholder; } } function updateCountryCodeInstruction(countryCode, fieldName) { updatePlaceholder(countryCode, fieldName); } function getDefaultHelpText(countryCode) { var mockPlaceholders = [ { countryCode: 'US', placeholder: '+1 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Include the US country code +1 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'GB', placeholder: '+44 0000 000000', helpText: 'Include the GB country code +44 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'CA', placeholder: '+1 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Include the CA country code +1 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'AU', placeholder: '+61 000 000 000', helpText: 'Include the AU country code +61 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'DE', placeholder: '+49 000 0000000', helpText: 'Fügen Sie vor der Telefonnummer die DE-Ländervorwahl +49 ein', }, { countryCode: 'FR', placeholder: '+33 0 00 00 00 00', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays FR +33 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'ES', 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}, { countryCode: 'SE', placeholder: '+46 00 000 00 00', helpText: 'Inkludera SE landskod +46 före telefonnumret', }, { countryCode: 'DK', placeholder: '+45 00 00 00 00', helpText: 'Inkluder DK landekode +45 før telefonnummeret', }, { countryCode: 'FI', placeholder: '+358 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Sisällytä FI-maakoodi +358 ennen puhelinnumeroa', }, { countryCode: 'EE', placeholder: '+372 0000 0000', helpText: 'Lisage EE riigikood +372 telefoninumbri ette', }, { countryCode: 'PL', placeholder: '+48 000 000 000', helpText: 'Podaj numer kierunkowy PL +48 przed numerem telefonu', }, { countryCode: 'SK', placeholder: '+421 000 000 000', helpText: 'Pred telefónne číslo uveďte kód krajiny SK +421', }, { countryCode: 'LV', placeholder: '+371 0000 0000', helpText: 'Iekļaujiet LV valsts kodu +371 pirms tālruņa numura', }, { countryCode: 'LT', placeholder: '+370 0000 0000', helpText: 'Įtraukite LT šalies kodą +370 prieš telefono numerį', }, { countryCode: 'GR', placeholder: '+30 000 000 0000', helpText: 'Συμπεριλάβετε τον κωδικό χώρας GR +30 πριν από τον αριθμό τηλεφώνου', }, { countryCode: 'PT', placeholder: '+351 000 000 000', helpText: 'Inclua o código de país PT +351 antes do número de telefone', }, { countryCode: 'HR', placeholder: '+385 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Uključite HR pozivni broj države +385 prije telefonskog broja', }, { countryCode: 'SI', placeholder: '+386 00 000 000', helpText: 'Vključite SI kodo države +386 pred telefonsko številko', }, { countryCode: 'IS', placeholder: '+354 000 0000', helpText: 'Láttu IS landsnúmer +354 fylgja á undan símanúmerinu', }, { countryCode: 'LU', placeholder: '+352 000 000 000', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays LU +352 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'MC', placeholder: '+377 00 00 00 00', helpText: 'Incluez le code pays MC +377 avant le numéro de téléphone', }, { countryCode: 'AD', placeholder: '+376 000 000', helpText: 'Incloeu el codi de país AD +376 abans del número de telèfon', }, { countryCode: 'JE', placeholder: '+44 0000 000000', helpText: 'Include the JE country code +44 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'IM', placeholder: '+44 0000 000000', helpText: 'Include the IM country code +44 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'GG', placeholder: '+44 0000 000000', helpText: 'Include the GG country code +44 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'AL', placeholder: '+355 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Përfshini kodin e vendit AL +355 para numrit të telefonit', }, { countryCode: 'SM', placeholder: '+378 0000 000000', helpText: 'Includere il prefisso internazionale SM +378 prima del numero di telefono', }, { countryCode: 'FO', placeholder: '+298 000000', helpText: 'Inkluder FO landekode +298 før telefonnummeret', }, { countryCode: 'MT', placeholder: '+356 0000 0000', helpText: 'Include the MT country code +356 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'LI', placeholder: '+423 000 0000', helpText: 'Fügen Sie vor der Telefonnummer die LI-Ländervorwahl +423 ein', }, { countryCode: 'GI', placeholder: '+350 000 00000', helpText: 'Include the GI country code +350 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'MD', placeholder: '+373 00 000 000', helpText: 'Includeți codul de țară MD +373 înaintea numărului de telefon', }, { countryCode: 'HU', placeholder: '+36 00 000 0000', helpText: 'A telefonszám előtt adja meg a HU országkódot +36', }, { countryCode: 'NZ', placeholder: '+64 00 000 0000', helpText: 'Include the NZ country code +64 before the phone number', }, { countryCode: 'ME', placeholder: '+382 00 000 000', helpText: 'Uključite ME pozivni broj države +382 prije telefonskog broja', }, ]; if (!countryCode || typeof countryCode !== 'string') { return mockPlaceholders[0].helpText; } const selectedHelpText = mockPlaceholders.find(function(item) { return item && item.countryCode === countryCode; }); return selectedHelpText ? selectedHelpText.helpText : mockPlaceholders[0].helpText; } function setDefaultHelpText(countryCode) { const helpTextSpan = document.querySelector('#help-text'); if (!helpTextSpan) { return; } } function updateHelpTextCountryCode(countryCode, fieldName) { if (!countryCode || !fieldName) { return; } setDefaultHelpText(countryCode); } function initializeSmsPhoneDropdown(fieldName) { if (!fieldName || typeof fieldName !== 'string') { return; } const dropdown = document.querySelector('#country-select-' + fieldName); const displayFlag = document.querySelector('#flag-display-' + fieldName); if (!dropdown || !displayFlag) { return; } const smsPhoneData = window.MC?.smsPhoneData; if (smsPhoneData && smsPhoneData.programs && Array.isArray(smsPhoneData.programs)) { dropdown.innerHTML = generateDropdownOptions(smsPhoneData.programs); } const defaultProgram = getDefaultCountryProgram(smsPhoneData?.defaultCountryCode, smsPhoneData?.programs); if (defaultProgram && defaultProgram.countryCode) { dropdown.value = defaultProgram.countryCode; const flagSpan = displayFlag?.querySelector('#flag-emoji-' + fieldName); if (flagSpan) { flagSpan.textContent = getCountryUnicodeFlag(defaultProgram.countryCode); flagSpan.setAttribute('aria-label', sanitizeHtml(defaultProgram.countryCode) + ' flag'); } updateSmsLegalText(defaultProgram.countryCode, fieldName); updatePlaceholder(defaultProgram.countryCode, fieldName); updateCountryCodeInstruction(defaultProgram.countryCode, fieldName); } var smsNotRequiredRemoveCountryCodeEnabled = true; var smsField = Object.values({"EMAIL":{"name":"EMAIL","label":"Email Address","helper_text":"","type":"email","required":true,"audience_field_name":"Email Address","merge_id":0,"help_text_enabled":false,"enabled":true,"order":0,"field_type":"merge"},"FNAME":{"name":"FNAME","label":"First Name","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"First Name","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":1},"MMERGE2":{"name":"MMERGE2","label":"Second Name","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"Second 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: false; var shouldAppendCountryCode = smsNotRequiredRemoveCountryCodeEnabled ? isRequired : true; var phoneInput = document.querySelector('#mce-' + fieldName); if (phoneInput && defaultProgram.countryCallingCode && shouldAppendCountryCode) { phoneInput.value = defaultProgram.countryCallingCode; } displayFlag?.addEventListener('click', function(e) { dropdown.focus(); }); dropdown?.addEventListener('change', function() { const selectedCountry = this.value; if (!selectedCountry || typeof selectedCountry !== 'string') { return; } const flagSpan = displayFlag?.querySelector('#flag-emoji-' + fieldName); if (flagSpan) { flagSpan.textContent = getCountryUnicodeFlag(selectedCountry); flagSpan.setAttribute('aria-label', sanitizeHtml(selectedCountry) + ' flag'); } const selectedProgram = window.MC?.smsPhoneData?.programs.find(function(program) { return program && program.countryCode === selectedCountry; }); var smsNotRequiredRemoveCountryCodeEnabled = true; var smsField = Object.values({"EMAIL":{"name":"EMAIL","label":"Email Address","helper_text":"","type":"email","required":true,"audience_field_name":"Email Address","merge_id":0,"help_text_enabled":false,"enabled":true,"order":0,"field_type":"merge"},"FNAME":{"name":"FNAME","label":"First Name","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"First Name","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":1},"MMERGE2":{"name":"MMERGE2","label":"Second Name","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"Second Name","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":2},"MMERGE3":{"name":"MMERGE3","label":"Company Name","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"Company Name","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":3},"MMERGE4":{"name":"MMERGE4","label":"Job Title","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"Job Title","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":4},"SIGNUP":{"name":"SIGNUP","label":"Signup form location","helper_text":"","type":"text","required":false,"audience_field_name":"Signup form location","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":5},"MMERGE6":{"name":"MMERGE6","label":"Image URL","helper_text":"","type":"imageurl","required":false,"audience_field_name":"Image URL","enabled":false,"order":null,"field_type":"merge","merge_id":6}}).find(function(f) { return f.name === fieldName && f.type === 'smsphone'; }); var isRequired = smsField ? smsField.required : false; var shouldAppendCountryCode = smsNotRequiredRemoveCountryCodeEnabled ? isRequired : true; var phoneInput = document.querySelector('#mce-' + fieldName); if (phoneInput && selectedProgram.countryCallingCode && shouldAppendCountryCode) { phoneInput.value = selectedProgram.countryCallingCode; } updateSmsLegalText(selectedCountry, fieldName); updatePlaceholder(selectedCountry, fieldName); updateCountryCodeInstruction(selectedCountry, fieldName); }); } document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function() { const smsPhoneFields = document.querySelectorAll('[id^="country-select-"]'); smsPhoneFields.forEach(function(dropdown) { const fieldName = dropdown?.id.replace('country-select-', ''); initializeSmsPhoneDropdown(fieldName); }); });

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