Dark AI worldview frightens US stock markets

Substack post by Citrini Research founder James Van Geelen the stuff of dystopian fiction

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The S&P 500 tumbled over 1% this week and IBM experienced its largest single-day decline in 25 years and both have been linked to a single post by Citrini Research founder James Van Geelen outlining the short term of artificial intelligence on the market, on the jobs market, and on society as a whole.

In what he described as a thought experiment, Van Geelen showed how in two years the world changed from gleefully optimistic about new AI technology to a rudderless ship.

The years 2024 and 2025 brought an optimism about the possibilities artificial intelligence would offer. Builders and owners of models and data centres invested tens of billions of dollars in more computing power and saw their turnovers skyrocket. However, during 2026, it also became clear, Van Geelen said, that workers were not going to earn more net. Wages did not increase.

Companies whose business was hardest threatened by AI became the ones that embraced the tech the fastest. Save what can be saved. As AI got better and cheaper, companies laid off employees and then used the savings to buy more AI capacity, allowing them to lay off even more employees.

This is where Van Geelen’s dark scenario sets in. For jobs are disappearing into the machine without people being able to find work elsewhere. At least, where jobs in offices behind a desk are concerned. No jobs, no money, no turnover, no profit, no tax revenue and loans that will no longer be paid off.

The picture is bleak but this is not the first time markets have been warned about AI. Back in June 2023, consulting firm McKinsey told the Vivatech stage that 70% of workers could have half of their tasks automated. Given current hiring patterns at multinational level seeing downsizing of workforces across all functions it is becoming clear that AI is a HR problem.

The comments under Van Geelen’s post range from the sceptical to downbeat to the strangely optimistic. If nothing else, a conversation has been started.

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